It is near impossible to read foreign policy writings now without quickly coming across mention of US-China great power competition. There is also a raging debate about if or how much the US should “pivot” to the Indo-Pacific in the face of a rising China superpower and the Russian war in Ukraine.
What seems to be lost on US policy makers is that it is not a choice between focusing on the Indo-Pacific or maintaining a strong presence in Europe. What the US needs is a Eurasian strategy that sees the Indo-Pacific and Europe as part of the same theatre and area.
Geographically speaking the continent of Europe is a funny construct anyway, it is clearly part of the Eurasian land mass, not a separate continent. All other continents are formed and separated by oceans, perhaps with small land connections. Only Europe and Asia are divided by a single mountain range, the Urals. I won’t go into the imperial and racial reasons for this but suffice it to say that Europe and Asia are the same continent geographically. If anything, Europe is a subcontinent of Asia, much like India. But enough about the physical geography piece.
More importantly, from a geopolitical and great power competition perspective, looking at the Eurasian land mass is the more prudent approach for long term competition. China understands this, that is one of the main reasons they are growing closer to Russia and fully integrating the economies of the central Eurasian countries like Kazakhstan. Russia is the only country that spans the Eurasian landmass, so for China it provides both physical and diplomatic cover for its ambitions to become dominant.
The US has the disadvantage of being far away from Eurasia. This means it struggles to see the whole picture. The war in Ukraine has highlighted how events on one side of Eurasia have strong repercussions on the other side of Eurasia. The Ukraine war changed China’s calculus for how it can behave in its immediate neighborhood.
There are a few things US policy makers can do to create a more robust Eurasian strategy capable of adapting to a rising China:
- View Europe as a centerpiece of China competition. Eastern Europe is arguably one of the new front lines for US-China competition, especially as these countries begin to see the reality of Chinese support for Russia.
- Support Ukraine in its struggle to fight Russia. Not only is it the right thing to do for the Ukrainians to save their country, but it also counters China’s vision of world order.
- Strengthen ties to Central Asia at a time when Russian influence there is waning, but Chinas influence is growing. These countries do not want to be become vassals to China so to varying degrees will respond positively to stronger US engagement.
Overall, the US must have a longer and wider view of competition with China in Eurasia. Chinese history is long, and they are playing the long game for Eurasian dominance. The US has a short history, and its democratic political system means it takes a narrow and short-term view of Eurasian competition. This is a losing strategy but one that can be altered to better suit Eurasian great power competition.
