In geopolitics the term middle power can be misused. It tends to mean a country that is not a superpower (like the US and China are or the Soviet Union was) but is strong enough to throw their weight around in their own neighborhood. The term should also refer to a country that can play the superpowers off against each other and forge their own non-aligned geopolitical path. To take it a step further, it should also mean a country that has the potential to become a superpower itself, someday. It is important to examine the existing middle powers because they can add heft to the superpowers. Below we look at the four middle powers considered the most important in today’s world: Brazil, India, Japan, and Turkey. Today’s superpowers (the US and China) should learn these countries well and genuinely listen to their diverse national interests. Doing so could give one superpower an advantage over another.
Brazil
Brazil is the third largest economy in the Western Hemisphere and has the second largest population (GDP $1.6T and population of 214M). These factors alone provide it with regional weight, though Brazil has not translated that heft much outside South America. Unfortunately for Brazil, it suffers from deep internal divisions (note the recent attack on government buildings) that prevent it from exploiting its power. However, Brazil has strong cultural ties with the US, and even stronger economic ties with China, who buys its many commodities. Of all the middle powers Brazil’s stance vis a vis the US China power struggle is the most up in the air. Brazil mistrusts the US but is also unsure of China. The US would be wise to keep Brazil close if for no other reason to avoid China gaining more of a foothold in South America.
India
India is the sixth largest economy in the world and is (probably by now) the world’s most populous nation (GDP $3.1T and population 1.4B). Arguably the most powerful of the middle powers, and certainly the one with the most potential to become a superpower itself. India has been adept at playing both sides of the superpower divide by forging closer security ties with the US (it joined the Quad grouping with Australia, Japan, and the US) but also shunning sanctions against Russia and buying gobs of their cheap oil/gas. In the struggle between the US and China, India is in a tough spot. It has an active border dispute with China but is furious at the US for its continued support for its archrival, Pakistan. India is also weary of Chinas moves to build military bases in the Indian Ocean. Of all four middle powers India is the one that can offer the most muscle and influence for the US in its superpower struggle with China. The US should bring India as close as possible while understanding that India will always look out for itself first, especially as its power grows.
Japan
Japan is the world’s third largest economy (GDP $4.9T) and has a population of 125M. Compared to the other middle powers Japan is the most aligned with one superpower, the US. Japan hosts numerous US military bases and is keenly aware of Chinas growing military might across the water. On the other hand, China is Japan’s largest trading partner by far and despite the security concerns, Japan must consider China’s economic importance. Japan’s declining demographics may prevent it from ever reaching superpower status, but its economic size and strategic location means the US will always try to keep it close.
Turkey
Turkey has a GDP of $819B and a population of 85M. The smallest economically and population wise of the middle powers, Turkey plays an outsized role because of its geographic location in Eurasia and its NATO membership. However, Turkish president Erdogan calculated that Turkey is large, strong, and rich enough to forge its own way forward and upset its main allies repeatedly. Turkey and China are increasingly forging stronger economic ties, partially because of the US and Europe’s frustration with Turkey’s leadership. China will certainly try to pry Turkey away from the US, but Turkey will never give up on its NATO status. The US should understand this and hope upcoming elections in Turkey result in a president that is less willing to upset its allies.
The US and China are wise to both court and watch these middle powers as they grow and pursue their own interests. Russia and the EU will be preoccupied with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This will grant these middle powers more room to maneuver. The US and China have the bandwidth to concentrate on each of these middle powers in addition to the Russia/Ukraine war. In the competition between superpowers, the one that brings these middle powers the closest may indeed take the advantage in any power struggle.
